NavList:

Gary LaPook wrote:
>I finally DO have an explanation for why Noonan was not able to find Howland, one that does not require any great error on his part. I am kicking myself that it took me so many years to see it.
See it on my website at:

https://sites.google.com/site/fredienoonan/a-valid-explanation-for-not-being-able-to-find-howland

1415 Z overcast
1515 Z overcast
1623 Z partly cloudy
1744 Z, wants bearing, about 200 miles out
1815 Z take bearing on us and report in/on half hour will whistle in mic about 100 miles out
1912 Z must be on you flying at 1,000 feet
“CANNOT SEE U BUT GAS IS RUNNING LOW"
"SEZ RUNNING OUT OF GAS ONLY 1/2 HOUR LEFT"
1927 Z circling, go ahead now or on /in half hour
1930 Z got your signal can’t get minimum
2013 Z on the line 157-337 will repeat on 6210
>

Gary, thank you for this interesting post. I have a few questions regarding the last 200 miles of the flight.

You wrote that the 1623Z report of some clearing suggests that Noonan took one or more celestial fixes at this time. SInce the 1744Z report of 200 miles out was in civil twilight, I assume that this was a dead reckoning estimate from his last celestial fix, sometime in the preceding hour and a half?

The scenario has them altering course, aiming for the NW of Howland Island, hoping to intercept the 157-337 LOP shortly after sunrise. They are flying at 1000 feet, probably because of cloud cover. Under what set of conditions (cloud ceiling and time period) would Noonan have been able to get a good fix on the rising sun, to establish that they had reached the 157-337 line? If the cloud conditions prevented a proper sun observation, would he have still turned right based upon dead reckoning from his previous celestianl fix, perhaps three or even four hours earlier?

Don Seltzer

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