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To JK:
Greg has shown standard DR plot in RED where it differs from a modified DR plot (modified being restarting DR plot on EPs). This is a partial step toward what you are promoting. We see that it makes no difference and is still non Bayesian.

In your 3 in 1 diagram you try to show what you want to do but it is not complete. My calculator (needed to complete your program) or drawing set needed to complete standard DR plot does not have a blue dot function.

I'm willing to assume at this point, that the blue dot is an oval long axis perpendicular to track to account for current and leeway and is Gaussian with differing sigma in cross track and along track directions. When I throw in an asymetric LOP then the probability density distribution function describing that part of the LOP that is creditable is complicated enough that I want a bigger computer. Then I normalize that distribution and convolve it with the description of the basic oval blue dot perhaps oriented in a new direction. Is my computer big enough still?

Has this process given me better results in crossing an ocean using CN?

It is probably important to combine info using Bayesian theory in an electronic navigation system, but for me I'll use a chart plotter if I want something better than DR plot.
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