NavList:
A Community Devoted to the Preservation and Practice of Celestial Navigation and Other Methods of Traditional Wayfinding
Re: Fw: Re: Still on LOP's
From: Rodney Myrvaagnes
Date: 2002 Apr 28, 00:51 -0500
From: Rodney Myrvaagnes
Date: 2002 Apr 28, 00:51 -0500
On Sun, 28 Apr 2002 12:44:54 +1000, Peter Fogg wrote: > >The really interesting thing, if this is correct, is that the fix position in the >centre (centre in the sense of least squares) is exactly the same as from the >smaller hat which has the same proportions. The only difference seems to be in the >likelihood of the hat containing the AP: from 25%, according to the theory being >examined, to 80% or 90%. > It is certainly true that a family of similar triangles could be constructed, all parallel to an observational cocked hat, with the sides all displaced equally, such that a trangle could enclose any percent probablility of the actual location. A set of observations could occur that would result in any triangle in the family. Thus, the cocked hat resulting from three observations could have any probablility between 0 and 1 of containing the true position. If the size of the triangle is used as evidence of the probable error of the observations, which a reasonable navigator would do, then some probability of the true result lying within the triangle could stay constant for all cocked hats. This would depend on the distribution function (gaussian would be reasonable) and could come out to 25% if someone worked it out. Nobody has done so on this list AFAIK. Rodney Myrvaagnes J36 Gjo/a "Curse thee, thou quadrant. No longer will I guide my earthly way by thee." Capt. Ahab