NavList:

This community can die, and arguably it is on life-support. Have a good look at the attached graph. You're seeing the six-month moving average of total monthly messages over time. It's been a slow and fairly steady decline for a decade. At present, message volume is lower than it has been in over twenty years. Last month, November 2023, was so far the only month with message volume greater than the corresponding month in 2022. That's good, of course, but it's a small victory. Ten months from 2023 had lower traffic than 2022, and that total will very likely be eleven months when the year ends.

I have been doing what I can for years to "kickstart" the NavList community, hosting real-world gatherings, seeding discussions, trying to recruit new members, publicizing the group, improving the technical quality of the message boards, and so on. But we have a tough environment. Celestial navigation is a fading art. Those interested in the subject are primarily now looking for narrow answers, like how to fix a sextant component, or they're looking for exam and certification help. And in general, online communities have shifted during the past decade to lower-quality social media (which are perceived as safe harbors by most people despite their greater danger from online mischief). And of course, we have a demographic problem: the community of those interested in celestial navigation is aging out, and the number of people enthusiastic about the subject in younger age groups is nowhere near replacement level. By these measures the decline may be inevitable.

Inevitable? No. It doesn't have to be. All it takes is active participation, from long-term NavList fans and new visitors, too. Avoid that temptation to say "this conversation isn't for me". All too often in recent years I get emails from otherwise active NavList members saying "lately it's all math people" or "recently it's all about air navigation" or "the discussion is focused on history". Don't succumb! If a conversation gets off-topic or mired in some narrow aspect of the subject, then speak up --constructively if possible. Connect back to the main topic. Find a way to bring a meandering discussion back into your territory. Even better, start a new thread, a new topic. And above all, don't become annoyed if the conversation seems to be outside your wheelhouse. It's only a matter of time before the conversation swings back to your favorite interests, and with such a small group of active participants, it's up to each of us to help maneuver the conversation.

In many ways this graph is irrelevant. Activity from twenty years ago or fifteen or ten years ago is irrelevant. NavList message traffic from even a year ago is irrelevant. What counts is the future of the community. Yes, the patient is on life-support, but I wouldn't give it oxygen just to prolong its suffering! NavList ain't dead yet.

Frank Reed
Clockwork Mapping / ReedNavigation.com
Conanicut Island USA

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