NavList:

Hi Gary

Watch your talk to the gathered people on Amelia Earhart.

I haven't watched the video called "Finding Amelia Earhart" - I lost the link - the line up of experts - I purposely didn't - before reading a most objective account of the round the world flight and last flight to Howland.

I did not watch it - at which you were a guest - at that stage I did not know whether you were a pro-conspiracist or pro-facts person - not having been on this forum for long - but after watching (lastnight)  your talk to the gathered interested parties on the round the world flight and your summary of the final leg - I saw that it deviated little from my summary and objective analysis.

Some aspects that, I believe, bear teasing out as they appear to influence the final flight but are not really mentioned.

For other forum readers who are not familiar with modern aircraft accident causes (and for which this model seems quite appropriate for the Amelia Earhart final flight - look up Wikipedia - Swiss Cheese Model or here

https://skybrary.aero/articles/james-reason-hf-model#:~:text=In%20the%20Swiss%20Cheese%20model,and%20position%20in%20all%20slices.

1. Fred never explained why he was well north of track when he was approaching the Western Side of the African Continent after crossing the Atlantic

2. You mentioned that Fred used ONLY 2 star fixes -  we in the military NEVER called that a fix - we used 3 star fixes which produced the classic 'cocked hat' - 2 star never resulted in anything but a 2 position line.

3. A 2 star position line - you used this as a fix position with a 10% area of uncertainty around it - and in my training and experience would surely have lead to a big error in his position. We in the military never called the 2 star fix any more than a possible fix and we statistically corrected between this and our DR position. WE always plotted a DR position based on true heading and expected winds - and fix information was then treated using ( we never used 10% error) - we used a statistical 50% and 76% areas of stastical certanty - complex - and this forum not the place to give a statistics lesson - however we then averaged the error of the fix to the DR postion and came up with the MPP (most probable postion) - and we did this EVERY 30 minutes not every 2 hours or 1 hour. However I would agree with you that Fred actually was probably already well North of his track when he supposedly offset north to intersect the sun line DR forward line through Howland Is.

4. Apparently the map used by Fred was old - the true position of Howland was 6 NM further east than on his map - small but significant if you are looking for a needle in a haystack.

5. Fred never reconciled his astro to the Electra and Amelias flying habit - remembering the autopilot had significant problems - traditionally for astro we deselect the auto and try and fly a smooth flight - taking a shot parrellel to course mainting speed as closely as possible - to minimise accel error on the bubble - for and aft - maintaining heading accurately to minimise accel error on the bubble with changes in heading then a 3rd shot needing accurate flying. I suspect there was some degree of error in his celestial shots from the Electra - that just hadn't been recociled

6. Amelia crashed the aircraft - it had a major refit - was a professional compass swing ever done on this aircraft - I know Fred did a quick 4 point check - hoisting the tail wheel onto a dolly and turning the aircraft on the ground to the 4 compass cardinal points - but no further mention of this is found. I was qualified as a navigator to swing the wet compass in the Bristol Freighter - we used a ground compass - a specialised highly balanced highly tuned and swung compass to then synch the Bristol compass and to create a very precise error card - it is a very lengthy and precise process - I wonder if some of Fred's error - being north of track approaching Africa and Howland was attributed to unknown compass error - which becomes relevant when navigating purely by DR.

7. The Electra did not have seat belts - they were not legally required until much later - an Electra hitting the water at 60 mph - (stalling speed of the Electra) - would be like hitting a brick wall - and the DF box was apparently installed directly in front of Amelias head - certain and instant death on hitting the water.

8. Whilst no directly relevant - the Bristol had huge radial engines just like the Electra and the props were in line with the cockpit - we had modern earplugs and headsets - I had a headset EXACTLY like Amelia wore - they were used in WWII and dad was a Bomber Command pathfinder on Wellingtons and Mosquitos - he brought his headset home - I used it as a boy to listen to HF radio - the plug was identical to the old radios. THEY WERE USELESS FOR attenuating sound - the sound level in the Bristol was 190 DB - we were deaf when we landed after 8 to 10 hours flying - they flew for 20 hours - they would have been mentally and physically exhausted and stone cold deaf!!!!

However, all the above does not change the conclusion - that Amelia put too much emphasis on the use of DF to home to Howland - though it was completely and uttelry useless in the end and the smoke produced by the coast guard ship USCGC Itasca was useless - in the almost calm conditions it just flowed westwards I think with a light westerly and just flattened to a small layer on the sea - flares/searchlights would have been far superior.

9. And to me the grandest error - airmanship - they reached the GO/NO GO point (PNR - point of no return) and made the wrong decision based on false assumptions of finding Howland - and the 1 big fact they had - head winds greater than forecast - and they pushed on - with a tail wind back to Lea - they could have delayed further the decision - but return they should have - that was their final error in the swiss cheese scenario that could have cancelled all other accumulating errors ......... airmanship and a hard decsion - turn back!!!!

I think I have left out a few assessments - but not the conclusion 

Amelia and Fred ditched with empty tanks somewhere NW of Howland and were instantly killed and the aircraft quickly sank ........

The above is an opinion - but based on a lot of actual experience at flying and navigation including extensive celestial navigation experience.

Howard G