NavList:

Hi Gary

I too would agree with you on that point – as would all aeronautical navigators!

Sure, you can get an ‘unexpected headwind’ – but rarely ‘that unexpected’ that it blows all your calculations out the window. Jet streams are possible at low level but extraordinarily rare and simply unknown in 1937.

This happened quite often to bomber fleets during WWII when unexpected headwinds caused them to use more fuel to get to the target (which they had to come hell or high water).

And – the constant weaving by the pilot ( this is RAF bomber crews during night flying – which USAAF never did) – the constant weaving was to prevent German night fighters latching on – this constant weaving made astro navigation difficult and certainly impossible for 3 star fixing).

Noonan wasn’t under these pressures – 8000 ft over cumulus cloud – most likely fairly fluffy and not very active – so likely relatively smooth and hence perfect for astro fixing. However, what I am having problem reconciling Gary is the sun shots to give you lines of position across your track.

The points I cannot reconcile:

1. The sun was rising in the East

2. They were at 1000 ft – or if not they were still at 8000 – the sun was very low – and Noonan was shooting forward through the Electra front screen – not withstanding the error likely through the front windscreen – there was likely big error shooting the sun so low on the horizon – and likely increase in turbulence as the sun rose in the tropics

3. And he and Amelia would have been deaf and dog tired

4. AND now very cognisant that their fuel was low and they better find Howland quickly.

Add these factors together (and my belief that they were further north of track than they thought) – i.e. error in their astro fixingDR – and you have a lot of error to reconcile to find Howland – which they didn’t and ditched.

They simply ran out of options – their Ace Card was being able to navigate to within visual sight of Howland and/or home onto a DF from Itasca – neither happened – options zero – splash one Electra.

Howard G