NavList:

Hi Gary

I think I read that before I read the book about AE – and my deviation from the drawings of the Sun LOP is the 1623Z fix and a 10 nm area of uncertainty around it.

In military and aeronautical navigation lingo – we would not call this a fix – and as previously stated on this forum – we would have most likely done a 3rd shot to get a cocked hat – and still not called this a fix – and certainly not assumed only a 10 NM error around it.

My conjecture from significant experience at such navigation was that this would be called a MPP (most probable position) and there would already be a significant area of uncertainty accumulated around it – hence my conjecture that they were already well north of track – at least 30 -60 NMS – and with the offset when they hit the sun LOP most likely 60 -120 NM north of Howland ( which we knew to be true with the fact they had cumulus below them.)

Whether it was 10 or 20 or 30 North of track – is probably irrelevant – they were already running short of fuel.

As a point of difference – if this was a SAR mission to find a boat with a known last position (or even an island) and I was short of fuel I would have shot for the last known position directly – then done an expanding square search outwards –

Looking for an island, a boat in the sea needs both eyes looking – left and right of the aircraft not shooting the sun.

I get the feeling they just simply ran out of options – and were desperate and hopeful but alas never found the island simply because of a collection of factors running against them.

Regards