Welcome to the NavList Message Boards.

NavList:

A Community Devoted to the Preservation and Practice of Celestial Navigation and Other Methods of Traditional Wayfinding

Compose Your Message

Message:αβγ
Message:abc
Add Images & Files
    Name or NavList Code:
    Email:
       
    Reply
    Delta T long term formula
    From: Paul Hirose
    Date: 2018 Feb 3, 09:38 -0800

    A 2016 paper (Stephenson FR, Morrison LV, Hohenkerk CY., "Measurement of
    the Earth’s rotation: 720 BC to AD 2015," Proc. R. Soc. A 472: 20160404,
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspa.2016.0404) provided a set of polynomial
    approximations for ∆T, the time scale difference TT-UT1.
    
    http://rspa.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/472/2196/20160404
    http://astro.ukho.gov.uk/nao/lvm/
    
    The polynomials are valid from -720.0 to 2016.0. Outside that span we
    can use the parabola that best fits the whole data set: if t = (year -
    1825.0) / 100, then ∆T = -320 + 32.5 * t^2.
    
    Although a constant deceleration of Earth's rotation implies a parabolic
    graph of ∆T, a parabola may be a poor fit in the short term. For
    example, figure 10 of the paper (a graph of ∆T from 1550 to the present)
    doesn't show the parabola because it's off the graph. At 2018.0 the
    parabolic formula gives -200 s, whereas the true value is +69.
    
    We can get more reasonable values by starting at the last polynomial,
    which ends at 2016.0, when ∆T = 68.041. Then extrapolate from that point
    by integrating the length of day expression in the paper. That's how the
    values on the UKHO page ("ΔT & lod from −2000 to +2500") were obtained.
    
    It doesn't give a formula for the integral, but I have derived one,
    where t = year - 1825.0. To extrapolate into the future from 2016.0:
    
    ∆T = -293.600 + .00325 * t^2 + 349 * cos(.00419 * t)
    
    Note t is years, not centuries. The input to the cosine function is
    radians, not degrees.
    
    To extrapolate into the past from -720.0, change the constant from
    -293.600 to -385.979. With those constants there is less than one
    millisecond discontinuity at the junctions with the polynomials, and the
    extrapolations back to -2000 and forward to +2500 are practically
    identical (within the estimated error) to the values on the UKHO page.
    

       
    Reply
    Browse Files

    Drop Files

    NavList

    What is NavList?

    NavList is a community devoted to the preservation and practice of celestial navigation and other methods of traditional position-finding. We're a group of navigators, navigation enthusiasts and hobbyists, mathematicians and physicists, and historians interested in all aspects of navigation but primarily those techniques which are non-electronic.

    To post a message, if you are already signed up as a NavList member, start a new discussion or reply to any posted message and use your posting code (this is a simple low-security password assigned when you join). You may also join by posting. Your first on-topic messsage automatically makes you a member, and a posting code will be assigned and emailed to you for future posts.

    Uniquely, the NavList message boards also permit full interaction entirely by email. You can optionally receive individual posts or daily digests by email, and any member can post messages by email (bypassing the web site) by sending to our posting address which is "NavList@NavList.net". This functionality is similar to a traditional Internet mailing list: post by email, read by email, reply by email. Most members will prefer the web interface here for posting and replying to messages.

    NavList is more than an online community... more about that another day.

    © Copyright notice: please note that the rights to all messages and posts in this discussion group are held by their respective authors. No messages or text or images extracted from messages may be reproduced without the explicit consent of the message author. Email me, Frank Reed, if you have any questions.

    Join / Get NavList ID Code

    Name:
    (please, no nicknames or handles)
    Email:
    Do you want to receive all group messages by email?
    Yes No

    A NavList ID Code guarantees your identity in NavList posts and allows faster posting of messages.

    Retrieve a NavList ID Code

    Enter the email address associated with your NavList messages. Your NavList code will be emailed to you immediately.
    Email:

    Email Settings

    NavList ID Code:

    Custom Index

    Subject:
    Author:
    Start date: (yyyymm dd)
    End date: (yyyymm dd)

    Visit this site
    Visit this site
    Visit this site
    Visit this site
    Visit this site
    Visit this site