NavList:

Hi Frank

I was keeping my post simple and without too many loose threads that might invoke others to start tugging at the Earhart threads of conspiracy.

Yes I understand "Occam's Razor" is simplistic and unscientific - but so is the statement "The expedition builds on an already large body of evidence pinpointing the atoll as the location where the aviators went down. Much of it was gathered during dozens of visits between 1989 and 2019 by teams from the US explorers group Tigher (The International Group for Historic Aircraft Recovery)." as you have alluded to.

And as an aviator with a lot of hours and a family full of pilots - yes I do understand that aircrash investigations are highly complex lengthy investigations that invoke another model, the Swiss cheese model of accident causation is a model used in risk analysis and risk management - again not scientifically based but provides a model to understand why and when accidents can happen. [ I am trying to keep this argument simple but it could explode into a very complex argument].

In actuality, the swiss cheese model does apply to the Earhart disappearance if we assume that it was unlikely that a single event caused the disappearance which is probably true .... we don't really know.

I merely invoked Occam's Razor from the perspective of an experienced aviator/navigator in a similar situation of simply getting from Destination A to Destination B safely and to just simply use this perspective to come up with the "most likely" explanation of "what went wrong" - and I suggest this was not a singular event - i.e. engine failure or similar...... but a series of decisions by both crew members that lead to what I pressume a lack of fuel at the destination to enable them to look for the island...... and they simply ran out of fuel.

I simply applied the simplistic imperative "occam's razor" as a broad filter starting point which would, I believe simply reject what you say is "bullshit" ...... The expedition builds on an already large body of evidence pinpointing the atoll as the location where the aviators went down. Much of it was gathered during dozens of visits between 1989 and 2019 by teams from the US explorers group Tigher (The International Group for Historic Aircraft Recovery).

Please feel free to disagree or agree

H  H G

PS.... in a similar vein as aircraft accident diagnosis, also as a registered veterinary surgeon of 36 years I am very interested in disease and pathology ...... and watching NetFlix ( I think)  Henry VIII and the outbreak of "sweating disease"  - I looked this up as to what it really was caused by and modern medicine experts still don't really know even with the incredible diagnostic equipment forensic science is now equipped with and we do have a lot of evidence,  however, ....... in Emelia Earhart's case we have never found the aircraft and I suspect we probably never will despite those with a lot of money trying to.