NavList:

Hi Gary

Thank you for your information - my assessments were based on actual navigational experience were I in a similar situation - having actually navigated in such circumstances and that particular area or similar.

Up until I posted my comments I have not reviewed, read or seen any substantial detail about this tragic event - so had no preconceived idea about what should or should not happen.

As of lastnight I checked out Amazon.com.au - kindle books and have decided to read Amelia Earhart - The Mystery Solved by Marie K Long - I selected this because it seems to be as factual as it can be without involving all the speculation and conspiracies that are awash on the internet.

Until the subject came up in the Nav forum I was essentially ignorant of the known facts and what got my attention was the argument about whether Noonan used GMT or local and then the sextant error. I checked the internet and opened the floodgates. 

And one of the 1st YouTube hits was the 'Chasing Earhart discussion panel'  - noting your presence in the lineup of specialists.

I immediately turned this off - why - I needed to collect 'the facts for myself' rather than through the filter - god or bad of the panel.

I note my post regarding navigational techniques to find a speck in the ocean was actually very close to what 'appears' to be what Noonan would/should have done - speculation.

Interestingly - the Amazon book's first chapter is about the last flight - the known facts about fuel load, weather, fixes, radio transmissions etc - just what I need to make my own assumptions about the final flight.

Also interestingly - on exactly the same day I collected from the post office a reconditioned Bausch & Lomb A 8A USAAF WWII sextant - not disimilar to what may have been used by Fred Noonan - certainly of the era.

Also of passing interest is that I had just finished a book called The Making of The Merlin Engine (and the P&W Wasp radial engine that powered the Electra was considered one of the best engines of the time when radial engines were considered the best type of aircraft engine of the time because of the problem of cooling) - and something that also popped into my head was the fact that 100 Octane fuel didn't come into use in WW II in aircraft until later into the war - and the 1st thing mentioned in the book was that Amelia had a full load of 100 Octane fuel - interestingly.

But my conclusion (early conclusion) without ANY of the above information was that (notwithstanding technical problems- of which there was no suggestion of) was that they used more fuel than expected and just ran out of fuel and time - suggesting weather - i.e. icing or winds (icing doesn't happen at the altitude they were flying except they did get to 12000 - but icing unlikely in the tropics) - so winds - headwinds - and yep that appears to be what they had all the way. Headwinds - all the way  - and that is a real juice sapper and the greatest of ALL SINS in flying - and a KILLER - "push on itis" despite all the warnings - and there seems to be be a whole truckload of those.

My simple opinion (and I totally disregard all conspircay noise in the background) was simply that the headwind all the way sapped all destination fuel reserves to a minimum - and the navigation error Noonan planned with were too small or too large and they simply missed the island - and didn't have enough fuel to look for it. 

So Gary I need to finish this book assuming it stays objective and not speculative (just look at the conspiracy theories flying around(pun intended) about MH370 - and my thoughts - it crashed somewhere in the Indian Ocean and will NEVER be  found.)

Look at the speculation on ANZ  Flight 901 - 28 Nov 79 - that crashed in the Antartica - I was duty navigator on SAR duty in NZ at the time - we were about to launch to search from Christchurch to Antartica when it was found. The controversy stills is there on the REAL cause - officially 'pilot error'  - unofficially - programming error of the computer waypoint.

Gary I did quickly scann your website regarding the navigation Noonan would/should have used - and though I quickly scanned the visual displays of your thoughts - they appeared objective and consistent with navigational techniques I learnt in the military and used.

Gary - this is not a critique of your ideas - just that from a quick look on my behalf - your thoughts and opinions are consistent with the facts presented and I will read them in detail.

And I really enjoy the wisdom and knowledge on this forum and have enjoyed the posts of information freely given by all members on such a wonderfully old art and science.

MY job now, given to myself, is to come up to speed on all the mathematics associated with the art (science) of celestial navigation - and this differs greatly with the modern almanacs making it much easier than of old.

Luckily - my mathematical knowledge enjoyed significant studies before I became a navigator and after - so I am looking forward to researching all of this and getting back into the seat with the A - 8A I have just received from Bob S.

Regards Howard G