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Hi,

Let me add one cent. I don't understand what _the_ _true_ form of a
confidence region should mean.  IMO a confidence region is a region that
contains the MPP with a specified probability, often taken as 95%. It can
be circular, elliptical, square, heart-shaped or whatever you prefer, for
whatever theoretical, practical, or other reasons are important to you.

I have no references at hand now, but I remember there is a chapter on
statistical navigation in Bowditch (at least in my eighties edition). I've
never read it because I know I will never figure out an error ellipse in a
force six on a dark night in Dover Strait.

Steven.
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Steven Wepster                          wepster@math.uu.nl
                                        tel +31 30 253 1531
Mathematisch Instituut
Universiteit Utrecht
PO Box 80.010
3508 TA Utrecht
The Netherlands
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>With respect, you have not advanced any logical reason why these
>confidence intervals should be elliptical and (as I implied yesterday) a
>brief graphical examination of the problem suggests that they are not
>once there are more than two LOPs involved. What you appear to have is a
>programmed version of some (unknown and thus unverifiable) equations
>that calculate an elliptical approximation to the true shape of the
>confidence interval. That makes yours one step more realistic than an
>assumption that the area of uncertainty is circular but it does not
>demonstrate that the true confidence intervals are elliptical.

   

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