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James R. Van Zandt wrote:
>
> The sight reduction methods I have seen require an estimated position [1],
> or give no error estimate [2], or both [3].

Have you read Kaplan's "navigation solution" paper at the USNO site?
http://aa.usno.navy.mil/research/celnav.html

His algorithm may give an error estimate. I can't remember. It's used in
the Navy's STELLA software, which unfortunately is not available to
civilians. If you could create an open-source implementation of Kaplan's
algorithm, that would be some accomplishment. If nobody else steps up, I
may attempt that someday. I have experience in the related area of
orbital element least-squares adjustment. All my old source code is on
5.25 inch floppies, that's how long ago it was.

I don't believe that requiring an assumed position for a sight reduction
is a significant problem in practice. And I suspect proficient
navigators will pay little attention to a computer's error estimate.
They will rely on their experience and intuition, based on the observing
conditions and the way the LOPs look on the chart.

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