NavList:
A Community Devoted to the Preservation and Practice of Celestial Navigation and Other Methods of Traditional Wayfinding
Re: Occam's razor
From: Tom Sult
Date: 2014 Mar 19, 18:15 -0500
From: Tom Sult
Date: 2014 Mar 19, 18:15 -0500
I attempt to use my cell at altitudes from a few thousand to 18 K in my plan. Despite being able to see cell towers (or see cities at night). A 600 mW cell phone is unlikely to see a 60 mile range. Or even 30.
But then I can rarely get good reception here in the frozen north of MN in my car.
Tom Sult
Tom Sult
Sent from my iPhone
Radar contact was lost because they turned off the transponder, they were not out of transponder range, the signal disappeared only because the transponder was turned off. Primary radar signal strength drops off with the distance raised to the fourth power but the strength of a transponder signal, and of a CELLPHONE call, drops off only with the square of the distance. Cell tower antennas are optimized to send and receive horizontally but a plane at 35,000 feet is only 6 degrees above the horizon at 60 miles and 12 degrees at 30 miles the cell tower antenna pattern will receive signals from above the horizontal. Also, they passed over land, well within cell coverage. And, I am not the only one who has used a cell phone well above 4,000 feet.
gl
From: Tom Sult <tsult---.com>
To: garylapook---.net
Sent: Wednesday, March 19, 2014 10:51 AM
Subject: [NavList] Re: Occam's razor
Out of radar range out of cellphone range. Also cell phone towers don't point up. Cell phone reception is poor above 4000 ft AGL.
Tom SultSent from my iPhoneMy two cents. Nothing exciting happened on the plane, nobody kicked in the cockpit door, no bomb blew that door off it's hinges, the oxygen masks did not deploy, the cabin did not fill with smoke, the airplane did not undergo any violent or unusual maneuvers. The basis for this idea, well it comes from the normal preflight briefing given by the cabin crew which we have all heard.
"In the event of the a change in pressure oxygen masks will drop from the panel above your seat. Pull the mask towards you to start the flow of oxygen. Put your mask on first before you pull out your cell phone and call your relatives."
Anything exciting that would have been noticed by the passengers would have caused at least 239 phones on the ground to start ringing and none did.
gl
From: Robert Wyatt <chupacerveza---.com>
To: garylapook---.net
Sent: Wednesday, March 19, 2014 10:06 AM
Subject: [NavList] Re: Occam's razor
Then there is this reasonable refutation of the "Startingly Simple Theory" which explains most of the problems: http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/03/18/mh370_disappearance_chris_goodfellow_s_theory_about_a_fire_and_langkawi.html Lu Abel wrote: > Well spoken, Frank. > > One item omitted from the Wired analysis is that the MH370 supposedly made its left turn tens of minutes BEFORE the co-pilot's "good night" to ATC. So if there was a fire on the plane and the plane was turned towards the airstrip, why was it not reported to ATC? > > > > >> ________________________________ >> From: Frank Reed >> To: luabel{at}ymail.com >> Sent: Tuesday, March 18, 2014 11:46 PM >> Subject: [NavList] Re: Occam's razor >> >> >> >> >> ________________________________ >> >> Nah, Norm. A well-written blog article is not a solution.. Good prose is not good forensics. And labeling this a situation where Occam's razor is in play... well, no. >> Everybody from 'yo mama' to Courtney Love (bless you both if it's the same person!) has a theory on this thing, but the plane is still missing. >> -FER
