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On Jul 8, 2006, at 11:31 AM, Herbert Prinz wrote:

> Yes, and that's also confirmed world wide by satellite data, even for
> places in the middle of the ocean. But the global trend has been a
> linear increase of 2-3 mm / year.


Just to clarify the statistics of linear trends.  One can find a
linear trend whenever a response variable is increasing or
decreasing, even if there is statistically significant curvature in
the line.  For instance, a parabola starting from a minimum or
maximum will show a significant linear trend.  It additionally will
show a significant quadratic trend, indicating that the line is
curved as well as rising or falling.  However, if you look at points
symmetrically distributed around the inflection point of a parabola
(the minimum or maximum), then there will be no significant linear
trend, but the significant quadratic trend will still be there.

What this boils down to is that the linear trend of increasing ocean
levels over the past century and a half does not indicate that the
trend is ONLY linear.  Those data may not be at variance with the
evidence for global warming.


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