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Hi Fred, you wrote:
"There was a lot of  "noise" in those data.  There's a strong linear
trend, but there  also may be some non-linear ones as well.  There's a
large spike  in the second half of the nineties, which MAY be related
to the  current widely reported melting of the Arctic ice sheet, which
only  started in the 90s, to my understanding.
I'm not arguing about all the bs  surrounding global warming, just
about these particular data and their  relation to the other data we
have coming in.
I agree about the  imprecision of the weather "forecasts" for the
effect of rising  CO2."

That web site includes some other very nice graphs. Here, for  example, is
the interannual  variation:
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/residual1980.shtml?stnid=8518750

That  takes the same data set and subtracts the linear trend. If there's any
quadratic  non-linearity, it would show up here. This also includes higher
resolution for  the past 25 years and makes it much more obvious, in my opinion,
that there's no  recent "spike". There's plenty of interesting noise and some
of it can be  explained. For example, there's a bump in sea level in the early
1980s that's  connected with a well-understood long-period oscillation in the
North Atlantic  (if memory serves, the Europeans had slightly lower than
average sea level in  the early 1980s, but I don't know that for sure).

By the way, the  break-up of the Arctic pack ice involves floating ice only
and even if it melts  completely that does not change sea level. On the other
hand, if the Greenland  glaciers go into high gear, then land ice becomes
floating ice and this does  raise sea level. Although mountain glaciers are
melting, and have been melting  for a long time, the quantity of water they
contribute is relatively small. The  sea level rise that we see can still be attributed
to global warming (of  whatever cause) but the mechanism is simple thermal
expansion of the water in  the oceans. The same thing happens every summer at
shore locations. Tides in  Connecticut (both high and low) are a bit higher in
August than in January  because the water close to shore is much warmer. The
Gulf Stream right now is  about four inches higher than the water to the north
of it because it is much  warmer.

-FER
42.0N 87.7W, or 41.4N  72.1W.
www.HistoricalAtlas.com/lunars


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