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    Re: Sea level rise (off-topic)
    From: Frank Reed CT
    Date: 2006 Jul 9, 18:08 -0500

    Hello Geoffrey, you wrote:
    "But there is a  definite trend for a rising
    sea level - particularly at the end of the 20th  century."
    
    Thanks, that's very interesting. The POL site is loaded with  good data. It's
    also connected with the NOAA site (see below). Note that the  "Permanent
    Service for Mean Sea Level" is located at the Proudman Oceanographic  Lab.
    
    Have you looked at any of the sea level graphs at the web site that  I
    pointed out previously? Here's the address  again:
    http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html
    
    Try  some of the US sites, like "The Battery" in New York, which I've
    mentioned  already. Below the map, note "Other CO-OPS Stations" and "Global
    Stations".  There are many tidal data sets from locations all around the globe
    accessible  via these links. In the great majority, there is no evidence for any
    upswing at  the end of the 20th century. That is, whatever linear trend is visible
    in the  first half of the 20th century appears to continue right through to
    the present.  Do you have any opinion or thoughts on why that is? For example,
    take a look at  the tide gauge data for Brest, France. If you squint at it,
    there's maybe a hint  of an upswing at the very end (the data for this station
    end in the year 2000),  but it's smaller than other variations in earlier
    decades, certainly nothing  that yells out "changed trend". Similarly have a look at
    the tide gauge data for  Bombay/Mumbai, India. The trend appears to be
    solidly linear. For another US  example, look at Key West, Florida. Sea level IS
    rising, but it's rising at a  steady rate. So far at least, there's no upswing,
    no "hockey stick", as they put  it.
    
    In the link you pointed out, at least one tide station does show a  recent
    upswing, but it seems to be a relatively unique case. How do we reconcile  that
    with the long-term linear trends in so many other tide stations?
    
    And  you also wrote:
    "On the matter of Global Warming, there seems no doubt now  that after 900
    years in which the mean temperature in the Northern  Hemisphere was
    relatively constant, as measured using the historical  evidence garnered
    from tree rings, corals, ice cores, ocean sediments,  glacier lengths and
    historical records; the temperature started to climb  sharply at the start
    of the 20th century and continues to do so. The so  called "hockey stick"
    curve gets clearer and more definite as more data gets  thrown at it - a
    sure sign that it is not just a "bump on the  graph"."
    
    I don't know of many people who claim that temperature has been  constant for
    the 900 years before 1900. Did the cooling known as the "Little Ice  Age" not
    happen after all?
    
    Again, it may well be that sea level is going  to start on some steeper
    sloped trend line three days after yesterday, but the  tide gauge data shows
    nothing like that yet --except in a few isolated  spots.
    
    -FER
    42.0N 87.7W, or 41.4N  72.1W.
    www.HistoricalAtlas.com/lunars
    
    
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