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    Re: Where are you most likely to be in the triangle?
    From: Stephen N.G. Davies
    Date: 2017 Jan 23, 11:11 +0800
    It is very untechnical, but when I was trained in Britain’s Royal Navy an aeon ago, the answer to the question of ‘where am I most likely to be?’ in relation to cocked hats, assuming any such triangle to be modest and hence reflective of normal observational variation rather than any major error of observer or instrument, whether derived from celestial or terrestrial (i.e. compass bearings on charted objects) observations was, "that point which is nearest any known/charted navigational danger.”
    Stephen D

    Dr Stephen Davies
    c/o Department of Real Estate and Construction
    EH103, Eliot Hall
    University of Hong Kong

    Office: (852) 2219 4089
    Mobile: (852) 6683 3754 

    stephen.davies79@gmail.com
    daiwaisi@hku.hk


    On 22 Jan 2017, at 6:38 AM, Bill Lionheart <NoReply_Lionheart@fer3.com> wrote:


    I think this might be a fact that is "well known to those who know".
    
    Suppose you have three non intersection position lines from CN, You
    draw the triangle on your chart (so I mean the triangle is small
    enough that straight lines on a chart are a good approximation).
    
    Suppose that the errors in the measurements were normally distributed
    with the same standard deviation. For example we took enough sextant
    readings and averaged and evoked the central limit theorem to say they
    should be normal.
    
    So which point do we choose in the triangle as our position? The
    "middle"? Well there are 4 well-known centres of triangles (centroid,
    orthocentre incentre, circumcentre), and actually there are thousands
    of interesting centres of triangle with different properties tabulated
    by Kimberling http://mathworld.wolfram.com/KimberlingCenter.html
    
    The Maximum Likelihood estimate (ie in a sense the most likely) is the
    one that minimizes the sum of squares of the distances from the
    position lines.
    
    This point (number 6 in Kimberling's list!) is called the Symmedian
    Point, or Lemoine point or the Grebe point
    
    Diagram here
    http://mathworld.wolfram.com/SymmedianPoint.html
    
    Here is "The List" (scroll down to "X(6)")
    http://faculty.evansville.edu/ck6/encyclopedia/ETC.html
    
    So that is where you are most likely to be!
    
    Interestingly it can be constructed fairly easily with ruler and
    compasses. (Just for fun of course, you would be better off taking the
    time to get some more sights if you want better accuracy)
    
    Bill Lionheart
    


       
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