NavList:
A Community Devoted to the Preservation and Practice of Celestial Navigation and Other Methods of Traditional Wayfinding
Re: Where are you most likely to be in the triangle?
From: Stan K
Date: 2017 Jan 21, 18:17 -0500
From: Stan K
Date: 2017 Jan 21, 18:17 -0500
Which one of these, if any, corresponds to the point that Herbert Prinz discussed at a Mystic Seaport Navigation Weekend a bunch of years ago?
-----Original Message-----
From: Bill Lionheart <NoReply_Lionheart@fer3.com>
To: slk1000 <slk1000@aol.com>
Sent: Sat, Jan 21, 2017 5:39 pm
Subject: [NavList] Where are you most likely to be in the triangle?
From: Bill Lionheart <NoReply_Lionheart@fer3.com>
To: slk1000 <slk1000@aol.com>
Sent: Sat, Jan 21, 2017 5:39 pm
Subject: [NavList] Where are you most likely to be in the triangle?
I think this might be a fact that is "well known to those who know". Suppose you have three non intersection position lines from CN, You draw the triangle on your chart (so I mean the triangle is small enough that straight lines on a chart are a good approximation). Suppose that the errors in the measurements were normally distributed with the same standard deviation. For example we took enough sextant readings and averaged and evoked the central limit theorem to say they should be normal. So which point do we choose in the triangle as our position? The "middle"? Well there are 4 well-known centres of triangles (centroid, orthocentre incentre, circumcentre), and actually there are thousands of interesting centres of triangle with different properties tabulated by Kimberling http://mathworld.wolfram.com/KimberlingCenter.html The Maximum Likelihood estimate (ie in a sense the most likely) is the one that minimizes the sum of squares of the distances from the position lines. This point (number 6 in Kimberling's list!) is called the Symmedian Point, or Lemoine point or the Grebe point Diagram here http://mathworld.wolfram.com/SymmedianPoint.html Here is "The List" (scroll down to "X(6)") http://faculty.evansville.edu/ck6/encyclopedia/ETC.html So that is where you are most likely to be! Interestingly it can be constructed fairly easily with ruler and compasses. (Just for fun of course, you would be better off taking the time to get some more sights if you want better accuracy) Bill Lionheart